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jinwujinshu

Last updated Jul 14, 11:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$4K net profit from $559K of volume, with a 48.6% win rate across 72 trades, a 47% skill score, and a 0.8% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
47%
Confidence
32.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

48.6%

Trades

72

Net P&L

+$4.4K

Total Vol

$559.3K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 72 resolved trades (Beta(37, 41))

Cumulative Realized P&L

72 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 72 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -60.5%

Yes15W / 23L
39.5%

38 resolved positions

No3W / 0L
100.0%

3 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (72)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 72

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$1.9K
Shares261,396.9
Total Traded$257,475.95
Avg Price0.985
ClosedJul 12
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$100
Shares327.9
Total Traded$100.00
Avg Price0.305
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$3.5K
Shares150,405.8
Total Traded$146,760.45
Avg Price0.976
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYARGENTINA+$4.6K
Shares77,426.9
Total Traded$72,798.72
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$2.6K
Shares4,500.9
Total Traded$2,599.99
Avg Price0.578
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$283
Shares2,382.9
Total Traded$2,100.00
Avg Price0.881
ClosedJul 12
Spread: England (-1.5)
BUYENGLAND−$20
Shares76.2
Total Traded$20.00
Avg Price0.262
ClosedJul 11
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$955
Shares45,465.1
Total Traded$44,510.25
Avg Price0.979
ClosedJul 11
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?
BUYYES−$10
Shares41.2
Total Traded$10.00
Avg Price0.242
ClosedJul 10
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
BUYYES−$10
Shares62.5
Total Traded$10.00
Avg Price0.160
ClosedJul 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$982

Win / Loss

8W / 12L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-49.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 98.5¢
+$2
BUYNO+1.5%
#2Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 30.5¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%
#3Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 97.6¢
+$2
BUYNO+2.5%
#4Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 94.0¢
+$6
BUYARGENTINA+6.4%
#5Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.