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Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$7K net loss from $19K of volume, with a 11.1% win rate across 9 trades, a 27% skill score, and a -36.8% return on volume.
Only 9 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.
- Skill
- 27%
- Confidence
- 2%
Win Rate
11.1%
Trades
9
Small Sample
Net P&L
−$7.0K
Total Vol
$18.9K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 9 resolved trades (Beta(5, 13))
Cumulative Realized P&L
9 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 9 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +100.0%
1 resolved position
8 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (9)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–9 of 9
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$1,198
Win / Loss
1W / 8L
Win Rate
11.1%
Avg Return
+133.1%
1–5 of 9
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 9 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.