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Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$7K net loss from $19K of volume, with a 11.1% win rate across 9 trades, a 27% skill score, and a -36.8% return on volume.

Only 9 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
27%
Confidence
2%
Share on X

Win Rate

11.1%

Trades

9

Small Sample

Net P&L

−$7.0K

Total Vol

$18.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 9 resolved trades (Beta(5, 13))

Cumulative Realized P&L

9 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 9 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +100.0%

Yes1W / 0L
100.0%

1 resolved position

No0W / 8L
0.0%

8 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (9)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

19 of 9

BUYNO$1.4K
Shares5,473.1
Total Traded$4,435.84
Avg Price0.810
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$1.3K
Shares2,784.4
Total Traded$2,722.25
Avg Price0.978
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$1.2K
Shares2,603.2
Total Traded$124.08
Avg Price0.048
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$763
Shares1,781.4
Total Traded$1,658.47
Avg Price0.931
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$1.5K
Shares3,300.0
Total Traded$3,130.85
Avg Price0.949
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$1.8K
Shares4,605.7
Total Traded$3,957.45
Avg Price0.859
ClosedJul 13
BUYNO$289
Shares600.0
Total Traded$591.60
Avg Price0.986
ClosedJun 28
BUYNO$98
Shares200.0
Total Traded$197.60
Avg Price0.988
ClosedJun 19
BUYNO$1.0K
Shares2,100.0
Total Traded$2,054.66
Avg Price0.978
ClosedMay 24

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,198

Win / Loss

1W / 8L

Win Rate

11.1%

Avg Return

+133.1%

15 of 9

#1Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 81.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 97.8¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 4.8¢
+$1,998
BUYYES+1997.9%
#4Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 93.1¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 94.9¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 9 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.