Hyperlong
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$12K net loss from $881K of volume, with a 51.5% win rate across 200 trades, a 51% skill score, and a -1.3% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 51%
- Confidence
- 60%
Win Rate
51.5%
Trades
200
Net P&L
−$11.9K
Total Vol
$881.1K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 200 resolved trades (Beta(99, 95))
Cumulative Realized P&L
200 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 200 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -12.8%
78 resolved positions
111 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (200)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 200
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$1,973
Win / Loss
14W / 6L
Win Rate
70.0%
Avg Return
+98.6%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.