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LUCKORSKILL
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Last updated Jul 14, 09:01 PM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$36K net profit from $735K of volume, with a 59.1% win rate across 208 trades, a 58% skill score, and a 4.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
58%
Confidence
99.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

59.1%

Trades

208

Net P&L

+$36.3K

Total Vol

$735.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 208 resolved trades (Beta(124, 89))

Cumulative Realized P&L

208 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 208 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +27.1%

Yes67W / 23L
74.4%

90 resolved positions

No53W / 59L
47.3%

112 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (208)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 208

Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
BUYNO−$307
Shares7,812.4
Total Traded$4,296.81
Avg Price0.550
ClosedJul 14
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
BUYYES+$53
Shares1,129.4
Total Traded$641.80
Avg Price0.568
ClosedJul 14
Will Lamb Weston (LW) beat quarterly earnings?
BUYNO−$3
Shares62.8
Total Traded$19.25
Avg Price0.307
ClosedJul 14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$8.4K
Shares39,400.5
Total Traded$28,839.14
Avg Price0.732
ClosedJul 14
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
BUYYES−$0
Shares5.3
Total Traded$2.05
Avg Price0.390
ClosedJul 14
Will France win the World Cup?
BUYNO−$87
Shares428.3
Total Traded$347.47
Avg Price0.811
ClosedJul 14
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$306
Shares15,556.2
Total Traded$12,864.91
Avg Price0.827
ClosedJul 14
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
BUYYES−$0
Shares5.1
Total Traded$3.55
Avg Price0.690
ClosedJul 14
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
BUYNO+$12
Shares4,291.2
Total Traded$3,476.51
Avg Price0.810
ClosedJul 14
Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?
BUYNO−$0
Shares5.5
Total Traded$1.10
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$5,524

Win / Loss

6W / 14L

Win Rate

30.0%

Avg Return

+276.2%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 55.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 56.8¢
+$76
BUYYES+76.0%
#3Will Lamb Weston (LW) beat quarterly earnings?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 30.7¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 73.2¢
+$37
BUYNO+36.6%
#5Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 39.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.