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basedcigany

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:politicsdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$232 net profit from $657K of volume, with a 61.1% win rate across 18 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 0.0% return on volume.

Only 18 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
52%
Confidence
56%
Share on X

Win Rate

61.1%

Trades

18

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$232

Total Vol

$656.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 18 resolved trades (Beta(11, 10))

Cumulative Realized P&L

18 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 18 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -64.7%

Yes0W / 1L
0.0%

1 resolved position

No11W / 6L
64.7%

17 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (18)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 18

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$6
Shares1,850.0
Total Traded$99.90
Avg Price0.054
ClosedJun 11
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$93
Shares110,880.7
Total Traded$107,776.07
Avg Price0.972
ClosedJun 1
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$11
Shares19,000.0
Total Traded$18,847.98
Avg Price0.992
ClosedMay 6
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO−$114
Shares68,719.2
Total Traded$67,207.35
Avg Price0.978
ClosedMay 6
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$0
Shares4,133.3
Total Traded$4,096.13
Avg Price0.991
ClosedApr 28
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO−$19
Shares51,770.3
Total Traded$50,993.69
Avg Price0.985
ClosedApr 28
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$41
Shares82,127.0
Total Traded$80,484.38
Avg Price0.980
ClosedApr 14
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$18
Shares37,513.4
Total Traded$36,088.31
Avg Price0.962
ClosedApr 12
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$19
Shares40,125.0
Total Traded$39,202.13
Avg Price0.977
ClosedApr 9
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYNO+$26
Shares31,115.2
Total Traded$29,963.86
Avg Price0.963
ClosedApr 8

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$674

Win / Loss

11W / 7L

Win Rate

61.1%

Avg Return

-37.4%

1–5 of 18

#1Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 11, 2026 @ 5.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 1, 2026 @ 97.2¢
+$3
BUYNO+2.9%
#3Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 6, 2026 @ 99.2¢
+$1
BUYNO+0.8%
#4Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 6, 2026 @ 97.8¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Apr 28, 2026 @ 99.1¢
+$1
BUYNO+0.9%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 18 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.